IPCC Special report on Climate change , Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land management, Food Security and GHG gluxs in Terrestrial Ecosystems. [Aug 2019]

Summary for Policy holders:  (43 pages):

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/Edited-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf

UN IPCC “Climate Change and Land” Report (Aug 2019) Summary

Human use directly affects more than 70% of the global ice-free land surface.

Land is both a source and sink of GHG.

Agriculture currently accounts for 70% of Global fresh-water use.

Expansion of Agriculture area have contributed to increasing net GHG, loss of natural eco-systems (forests, savannahs, natural grasslands and wetlands) and declining biodiversity.

Data available since 1961 showed that per capita supply of vegetable oils and meat has more than doubled and the supply of food calories per capita has increased by about one third.

Currently 25% to 30% of food produces is lost or wasted.

2 billion adults are now overweight or obese while 821 million people are still undernourished.

Since pre-industrial period (1850 to 1900) land surface air temp has increase by 1.5 Deg (compared to 0.87 Deg global ave temp inc). this warming has caused an increase freq, intensity and duration of heat-related events (heat waves/ droughts). There has been an increase in intensity of heavy precipitation event at a Global scale.

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) activities accounted for 23% of net GHG emissions.

If emissions associated with pre- and post-production activities in the global food system are included, the emissions are estimated to be 21-37% of total net anthropogenic GHG emissions (medium confidence).

Dietary changes and food losses and waste reduction can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other response options.

Preserving and restoring natural ecosystems such as peatland, coastal lands and forests, reducing competition for land, soil management have the potential to make positive contributions to sustainable development.

The report warns against the use of bioenergy crops. Using crops for bioenergy could greatly increase demand for land conversion and increase risks for desertification, land degradation and food security.

The global sequestration potential of cover crops would be about 0.44+-0.11 GtCO2 /yr if applied to 25% of global cropland.

Reducing deforestation and forest degradation lowers GHG emissions with mitigation potential of 0.4 to 5.8 GtCO2/ yr.

Total mitigation potential from crop and livestock activities and agroforestary is 2.3 to 9.6 GtCO2 / yr by 2050.

….

Total mitigation potential from Dietary changes is 0.7 to 8 GtCO2/yr by 2050.

Demand-side mitigation (Full report Pg 766)

All diets need to provide a full complement of nutritional quality, including micronutrients (FAO et al. 2018)

Vegan: Completely plant-based (Springmann et al. 2016; Stehfest et al. 2009)

Vegetarian: Grains, vegetables, fruits, sugars, oils, eggs and dairy, and generally at most one serving per month of meat or seafood (Springmann et al. 2016; Tilman and Clark 2014; Stehfest et al. 2009)

Flexitarian: 75% of meat and dairy replaced by cereals and pulses; at least 500 g per day fruits and vegetables; at least 100 g per day of plant-based protein sources; modest amounts of animal-based proteins and limited amounts of red meat (one portion per week), refined sugar (less than 5% of total energy), vegetable oils high in saturated fat, and starchy foods with relatively high glycaemic index (Springmann et al. 2018; Hedenus et al.37 2014)

Healthy diet: Based on global dietary guidelines for consumption of red meat, sugar, fruits and vegetables, and total energy intake (Springmann et al. 2018; Bajželj et al. 2014) [Similar to Flexitarian Diet]
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Mediterranean: Vegetables, fruits, grains, sugars, oils, eggs, dairy, seafood, moderate amounts of poultry, pork, lamb and beef (Tilman and Clark 2014)

 

Global Diet change to Vegan diet will save 8 GtCO2/yr, shift to Veg diet has 6 GtCO2/yr savings, shift to Flexitarian Diet has 5 GtCO2 savings, shift to Healthy Diet has 4.6 GtCO2/yr savings, shift to Mediterranean diet has 3 GtCO2/yr savings

…..

Balanced diets, featuring plant-based foods, such as those based on coarse grains, legumes, fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and animal-sourced food produced in resilient, sustainable and low-GHG emission systems, present major opportunities for adaptation and mitigation while generating significant co-benefits in terms of human health (high confidence).

By 2050, dietary changes could free several Million km2 of land and provide a technical mitigation potential of 0.7 to 8.0 GtCO2e/ yr, relative to business as usual projections (high confidence). Transitions towards low-GHG emission diets may be influenced by local production practices, technical and financial barriers and associated livelihoods and cultural habits (high confidence). {5.3, 5.5.2, 5.5, 5.6}

Reduction of food loss and waste can lower GHG emissions and contribute to adaptation through reduction in the land area needed for food production (medium confidence). During 2010-2016, global food loss and waste contributed 8-10% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions (medium confidence). Currently, 25-30% of total food produced is lost or wasted (medium confidence). Technical options such as improved harvesting techniques, on-farm storage, infrastructure, transport, packaging, retail and education can reduce food loss and waste across the supply chain. Causes of food loss and waste differ substantially between developed and developing countries, as well as between regions (medium confidence). {5.5.2} By 2050, reduced food loss and waste can free several Mkm2 of land (low confidence). {6.3.6

Future land use depends, in part, on the desired climate outcome and the portfolio of response options deployed (high confidence). All assessed modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5ºC or well below 2°C require land-based mitigation and land-use change, with most including different combinations of reforestation, afforestation, reduced deforestation, and bioenergy (high confidence). A small number of modelled pathways achieve 1.5ºC with reduced land conversion (high confidence) and, thus, reduced consequences for desertification, land degradation, and food security (medium confidence). {2.6, 6.4, 7.4, 7.6; Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6; Figure SPM.4}

Modeled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C and 2ºC project a 2 million km2 reduction to a 12 million km2 increase in forest area in 2050 relative to 2010 (medium confidence). 3ºC pathways project lower forest areas, ranging from a 4 million km2 reduction to a 6 million km2 increase (medium confidence). {2.5, 6.3, 7.3, 7.5; Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6; Figure SPM.3, Figure SPM.4}

 

Land area needed for Bioenergy: for 1.5 Deg, 7 million km2 for bioenergy.

For 2 Deg, 0.4 to 5 million km2.

 

Policies that  reduce food loss and waste and influence dietary choices can contribute to climate change adaption and mitigation, reduce land degradation, desertification an poverty as well as improve public health.

Factor environmental costs into food can help for sustainable land management.

Reflecting the env cost of land-degrading agriculture practices can incentivize more sustainable land management.

Promoting diets based on public health guidelines can potentially influence food demand.

The effectiveness of decision-making and governance in enhanced by the involvement of local stakeholders (e.g. indigenous people, local communities, women, the poor and marginalized).

Agricultural practices that include indigenous and local knowledge can contribute to overcoming the combined challenges of climate change, food security, biodiversity conservation and combating desertification and land degradation.

Near-term change to balanced diets can reduce the pressure on land and provide significant health co-benefits through improving nutrition.

Rapid reductions in anthropogenic GHG emissions across all sectors following ambitious mitigation pathways reduce negative impacts of climate change on land ecosystems and food systems. Delaying climate mitigation and adaptation responses across sectors would lead to increasingly negative impacts on land and reduce the prospect of sustainable development.

Prompt action on climate mitigation and adaptation aligned with sustainable land management and sustainable development depending on the region could reduce the risk to millions of people from climate extremes, desertification, land degradation and food and livelihood insecurity

Delays in avoiding or reducing land degradation and promoting positive ecosystem restoration risk long-term impacts including rapid declines in productivity of agriculture and rangelands, permafrost degradation and difficulties in peatland rewetting.

Delaying action as is assumed in high emissions scenarios could result in some irreversible impacts on some ecosystems, which in the longer-term has the potential to lead to substantial additional GHG emissions from ecosystems that would accelerate global warming

Full report: (1500+ pages)  :

https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl-report-download-page/

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/Fullreport-1.pdf